Non-Manufacturing PMI – A Leading Indicator of Economic Growth

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing PMI is a widely watched economic indicator that measures the health of the US non-manufacturing sector, which includes industries such as services, construction, retail, and transportation. This sector accounts for more than 80% of the US economy, making the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI a valuable tool for economists and investors seeking to understand the overall direction of the economy.

Non-Manufacturing PMI – A Leading Indicator of Economic Growth
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The PMI is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers in the non-manufacturing sector. These managers are asked a series of questions about their current business conditions, including production, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. The responses to these questions are then compiled into a single index that ranges from 0 to 100. A reading above 50 indicates that the non-manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting.

Importance of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of economic growth. This means that it can provide early warning signs of a slowdown or acceleration in economic activity. The PMI has a strong track record of predicting future changes in the GDP, making it an essential tool for economists and investors seeking to make informed decisions.

In addition to being a leading indicator of economic growth, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI can also provide insights into inflationary pressures. When the PMI rises, it can suggest that businesses are facing higher input costs, which they may pass on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Conversely, when the PMI falls, it can suggest that inflationary pressures are cooling.

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Components of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is composed of six sub-indices:

  • New orders: measures the level of new orders received by businesses in the non-manufacturing sector.
  • Production: measures the volume of production in the non-manufacturing sector.
  • Employment: measures the level of employment in the non-manufacturing sector.
  • Supplier deliveries: measures the speed at which businesses in the non-manufacturing sector are receiving deliveries from their suppliers.
  • Inventories: measures the level of inventories held by businesses in the non-manufacturing sector.
  • Prices: measures the level of prices charged by businesses in the non-manufacturing sector.

Each of these sub-indices is equally weighted in the calculation of the overall PMI. This means that each component has an equal impact on the overall reading of the index.

The ISM Manufacturing Report Explained - 24/7 Charts
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Ism Non Manufacturing Pmi

Applications of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is used by a variety of stakeholders, including:

  • Economists: use the PMI to track economic growth and inflationary pressures.
  • Investors: use the PMI to make informed investment decisions.
  • Businesses: use the PMI to make informed business decisions, such as hiring and production decisions.
  • Government policymakers: use the PMI to inform fiscal and monetary policy decisions.

By understanding the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and its components, investors and businesses can gain valuable insights into the health of the US economy. This information can help investors make informed investment decisions and businesses make informed business decisions.


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